Sunday, December 20, 2009

Catching up

The past couple of days have been spent with Dilip retrieving various file from my computer after the virus got in and stuffed it. He's getting the files out without bringing the virus with them.

So far so good, we've managed to find some of the e-mail stuff that I hadn't got around to backing-up so, for example, I've found some of the e-mail addresses I thought I'd lost. I'm gradually rebuilding the address book, and also putting sites back into Favourites. There's also softwear to re-install so it's all taking a lot of time.

That's delayed me following on from the Abu Dhabi rescue story, which I wanted to do a few days ago.

The rescue attracted the usual comments about AD grabbing Dubai's assets, such as Emirates, in return, but I don't subscribe to that theory.

Even in the unlikely event that it happened we wouldn't know about it anyway. It would be done quietly behind closed doors. But I don't think for one moment it will happen.

The only real long-shot is a merger between Emirates and Etihad to make a true national airline. But I don't even see that happening. They're both strong international brands which billions have gone into building and to compromise that would be a ridiculous business decision.

Another real long-shot would be an Al Nahyan on the board of Dubai World to make sure the restructuring is done to their satisfaction - but again I don't see it as a realistic possibility.

The deal was a straight commercial one, $10 billion over five years at 4% interest are the reports.

Additionally, AD doesn't need the money. They pump about 2.7 million barrels of oil a day which at about $7o a barrel is getting on for $70 billion a year. That makes the profits from companies such as Emirates, Dubal, Ducab, Jumeirah relatively trifling.

When people have enough money what want is power and that's what I think AD will want in return for helping the other emirates. Less independence for individual emirates with more federal (meaning Abu Dhabi) influence over events, laws, conduct.

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