Saturday, August 29, 2009

Wildfires all over

There seem to be wildfires, or bushfires, across the planet.

California has big fires blazing now:

Photo Wally Skalij LA Times

Athens has just been through the same, with fires getting into the suburbs:
Photo AP

And even in Australia where it's winter and months before the fire season is due to begin there are fires to the north and south of Sydney.

This is near our home town just north of Sydney this week:

Photo Waide Maguire ExpressAdvocate

To the south of the city the Rural Fire Service has declared an emergency over several bushfires. The worst weather for firefighters, high winds, is forecast.

After Australia's deadliest fires in February, when 173 people died in Victoria's Black Saturday fires, there are warnings that their upcoming fire season will be the worst in the state's history.

Back in our home state I've just looked at the New South Wales Rural Fire Service website to check the current incidents.

Remember this is not the fire season, it's winter, yet they currently have 26 bushfires listed which are affecting over 12,800 hectares (28,000 acres).

Something's going on out there.


dubai properties said...

its terible view
Is this fire used to happen in all the years

Anonymous said...

Dude, your posts are great but have a serious case of conspiracy-theoritis!

Seabee said...

I don't for one moment suggest there's a conspiracy, but climate change or something is happening.

Anonymous said...

Or could it be that such fires always occurred in the similar frequencies but have only collectively come to wider attention because of ease of news dissemination provided by the internet?

Seabee said...

Because of the Australian experience with bushfires our papers routinely reported overseas fires even before the internet appeared on the scene. Of course now more people in more places can find out about them if they want to.

But...Australian fires in the winter are unusual, it's nothing to do with having access to information about them. For them to be burning at the same time as the northern hemisphere summer fires is unusual.

Anonymous said...

I've just worked out why that guy got annoyed at your post about the car fires...

You see a little bit of information and jump to conclusions.

Same here with the fires and the climate change.

Seabee said...

Anon@9.12 it's actually you jumping to conclusions, a wrong one too because you completely misinterpret what I've said.

Read it again and you'll see I'm not stating a conclusion. I've said that fires in the northern and southern hemispheres at the same time is most unusual, and that "climate change or something is happening"

As with the car fires you mention I'm posing questions, wondering what the causes are, inviting comment - preferably informed comment.

That's far from 'jumping to conclusions' wouldn't you say?

Anonymous said...

You take a tiny little sample and say it indicates something significant.

That is jumping to conclusions.

Any statistician will support me.

Perhaps you need to learn a bit about stats yourself and then you will see what you are doing is akin to henny-penny saying the sky is falling in simply because a piece of bread fell on her head.

Seabee said...

Anon, you are getting all steamed up taking very seriously a light-hearted throw-away line aren't you.

The post was a note that there are wildfires burning on three continents at the same time, with the observation that bushfires in Australia in wintertime was unusual.

It's not a learned statistical analysis, it's not research, I didn't take a sample of anything to demonstrate anything. I noted something unusual.

Incidentally, research is something that I've been intimately involved in for many years so I don't really need your advice on it.

Anonymous said...

In order to notice something 'unusual' you first have to have a baseline for what is usual.

That is your sample.

If you don't like people picking you up on your throw-away lines then perhaps you should make more considered statements.

This is what other people have been commenting on in your other posts.

Seabee said...

Anon@12.26, you're obviously young and inexperienced (that's in no way intended as a criticism by the way) and very enthusiastic about research & statistics. Nothing wrong with that but it does mean you see everything in those terms and miss the woods for the tree.

Anonymous said...

Why is being enthusiastic about research & statistics an indicator of youth and inexperience? Notwithstanding your parenthetical qualifications your statement appears to be somewhat patronizing as was evidently intended.

Seabee said...

Anon@7.47, it wasn't meant to be patronising at all. I made the point that you to relate everything to just one subject, one which you're obviously enthusiastic about, ignoring what the post was actually about. Many of us were the same about our own pet subject when we were also young and inexperienced. Instead of seeing the bigger picture it leads to tunnel vision focus on the one subject.

As I said in an earlier comment: "...Australian fires in the winter are unusual...For them to be burning at the same time as the northern hemisphere summer fires is unusual. That's what the post was about, (the woods) which you couldn't see because you saw it as research and statistics (the tree) which you based on five tongue-in-cheek throw-away words.

Actually, they don't come into it in any way.