So how bad is it?

The Times revealed yesterday that many expatriates are abandoning their cars outside Dubai's international airport and fleeing home rather than risk jail for defaulting on loans. Police have found more than 3,000 cars, mainly Mercedes and large 4x4s, at the airport in recent months.

When the market collapsed and the emirate’s once-booming economy started to slow down, many expatriates were left owning several homes and unable to pay the mortgages without credit.

"...the anecdotal evidence is overwhelming. Dubai is emptying out,” said a Western diplomat.


That's the thrust of many of the recent stories in the international media. And of course at dinner parties, with people competing to pass on the worst doom & gloom rumours.

I do think we need to get some balance into the picture.

Over the last month we've visited friends & family in Singapore and Australia, and we're in touch with others there and in other countries.

The story is much the same everywhere, worse in some countries than others. Unemployment is reaching record highs - in the US half a million workers are losing their jobs each month. Australia is doing better than most countries, but unemployment is reaching the worst in two decades.

In Singapore my sister-in-law is working reduced hours, and therefore receiving a reduced salary. In Australia my nephew, an electrician, is struggling to find work.

In countries which have expat labour a lot of them are leaving to go home, either because they've lost their job or by choice. Eastern Europeans are leaving the UK, Asian workers are leaving Singapore.

Surely no-one could have thought that Dubai would be any different. Of course people are losing their jobs, of course expats are leaving to go home. But that's very different from the economy collapsing, the city emptying out as all the expats flee.

In the UAE it's reported that US$582 billion of construction projects are on hold - but another US$698 are proceeding. That's a huge amount of construction work under way by any country's standards.

We know more than a few people who've lost their jobs, many of them unable to find another so they've left or are planning to. But give it a moment's thought and we know very many more who have not lost their jobs.

The roads are a bit quieter and probably a small contribution to that comes from there being less people about. But there's still an awful lot of traffic on the roads.

Tourist figures are down, but tourists are still coming. Retail spending is down, but the shops are still doing business.

So while there are people being fired, while there may be fewer cars on the roads, while spending may be down there are still plenty of people working, plenty of cars being driven, plenty of money changing hands.

It's a slowdown for sure, but not to the degree many of the reports would like us to believe.

Something that's particularly apparent to me is that if you've lost your job there's a recession. But if you're one of the eighty or ninety percent still working, there isn't.

In Singapore, in Sydney, in Aussie country towns, in Dubai along The Walk at JBR and at many of our five-star hotels, the restaurants are full. At weekends you struggle to get a table.

Reports from all over are that people are spending less, saving more - just in case. Rainy day money. That makes sense. But they haven't stopped spending entirely. Business is still being done. A lot of business.

Some balanced reporting would be nice. And even better would be some accurate figures, clearly explained and put in context.

But I'm not holding my breath.