Seemingly, to me, the Libyan revolution came out of nowhere. I really expected other places such as Yemen to dominate the headlines about people power.
It looks as though I wasn't alone in that thinking, the 'international community' very obviously didn't think the mad colonel was in any danger because they had no contingency plans in place.
Only after the country imploded and they realised their citizens in Libya were in grave danger did they start to work out evacuation plans.
Those plans have gone wrong very often too, for example with the British PM having to apologise for the stuff-up, and reportedly carpeting his ministers.
At this late stage the Aussies are being told to head to the airport where arrangements have been made with allies to evacuate them. I can't even begin to imagine the chaos and confusion there is and will continue to be.
Out of the blue Libya started to dominate the news. The speed of the changes and the success of the revolutionaries is astonishing.
What hasn't surprised me is the crazed raving of the colonel. Dressed just like Michael Jackson on tour he's been ranting almost incoherently - but behind the pantomime has been the very real threat of the massacre of demonstrators.
At long long last the 'international community' has started to speak out against the regime and it looks as though sanctions, even perhaps some sort of military action, are imminent.
Having supplied the weapons he's been using against the demonstrators it now seems that the west won't replace the spent arms. Assets squirreled away by the ruling family are being frozen. Diplomats and members of his government are defecting.
The regime is increasingly isolated and has all-but gone.
I'm afraid there's going to be terrible bloodshed though before they're finally driven out.
The colonel's son Saif al-Islam has been on tv telling the world they have Plan A, Plan B and Plan C. They are identical, to live and die in Libya.
Like a cornered wounded animal they will fight to the death and take as many of their opponents with them as they can.
I sincerely hope the 'international community' summons up the political will to step in and prevent that happening.
Sunday, February 27, 2011
Thursday, February 24, 2011
Amazing photo
Well I think it's amazing.
The earthquake in Christchurch dislodged a car-sized boulder near Lyttleton. You can follow its path as it rolled across the lawn and then smashed straight through the house.
Photo: AAP ninemsn.com.au
And here it is, the other side of the house it destroyed.
Photo: AAP ninemsn.com.au
Her fate?
Yesterday I posted a link to a mobile phone conversation between a woman trapped under her desk in a collapsed office building in Christchurch and a tv station.
She said she had not had contact with rescuers.
What happened?
Late yesterday rescuers pulled her out alive with broken ribs and cuts. She is recovering in hospital.
Ms Vos said she had plenty of time trapped under four-storeys of rubble to reassess her priorities in life - if she made it out alive.
''Like not worrying about stupid things like: 'Oh my god, where's my bag?','' she said. ''What does that matter? They are things you can replace later. You can't replace people.''
The randomness of death, injury, escape in disasters always intrigues me.
There are amazing stories of missing death by seconds or centimetres and while some people are being rescued the death toll now stands at a confirmed ninety eight. Very sadly babies are amongst the dead, which I always think is somehow the saddest thing. One of just five months old and another nine months old are amongst the confirmed dead.
Over two hundred people are still missing and the rescue services say hope of finding any more survivors is almost zero. They've had no sounds or signs of life in over twenty-four hours.
The report is here.
She said she had not had contact with rescuers.
What happened?
Late yesterday rescuers pulled her out alive with broken ribs and cuts. She is recovering in hospital.
Ms Vos said she had plenty of time trapped under four-storeys of rubble to reassess her priorities in life - if she made it out alive.
''Like not worrying about stupid things like: 'Oh my god, where's my bag?','' she said. ''What does that matter? They are things you can replace later. You can't replace people.''
The randomness of death, injury, escape in disasters always intrigues me.
There are amazing stories of missing death by seconds or centimetres and while some people are being rescued the death toll now stands at a confirmed ninety eight. Very sadly babies are amongst the dead, which I always think is somehow the saddest thing. One of just five months old and another nine months old are amongst the confirmed dead.
Over two hundred people are still missing and the rescue services say hope of finding any more survivors is almost zero. They've had no sounds or signs of life in over twenty-four hours.
The report is here.
Tuesday, February 22, 2011
Listen to this
TV Channel 9 here in Oz has broadcast an amazing interview over her mobile phone with an Aussie woman trapped in her Christchurch office building after today's earthquake.
I've said many times before during major disasters that they're actually not one event but a jigsaw of individual, very personal stories.
This is another example of that.
She sounds calm but she must be terrified.
Listen here:"I'm trapped under a desk, I can't get out, it's dark, I'm bleeding, and I just don't what's going on out there".
Ánd by the way, it's a side of mobile phones, often so annoying and cause for complaint, that we don't think about. Try to imagine the comfort of it to someone like this, trapped in the dark, not knowing what's out there, what's going on, what her situation really is. She at least has contact with a friendly voice, feels that she's not alone.
Another example of a very personal story that was part of a much larger jigsaw - and another showing the value and comfort of a mobile phone in these disastrous situations - that still raises the hair on the back of my neck whenever I listen to it was during the Black Saturday bushfires in Victoria. It was a real time audio of one person trapped right in the middle of it, facing a terrifying death.
Rhiannon, only twenty years old, called radio station 3AW as the fires raced towards the house where she and a group had taken shelter.
I've said many times before during major disasters that they're actually not one event but a jigsaw of individual, very personal stories.
This is another example of that.
She sounds calm but she must be terrified.
Listen here:
Ánd by the way, it's a side of mobile phones, often so annoying and cause for complaint, that we don't think about. Try to imagine the comfort of it to someone like this, trapped in the dark, not knowing what's out there, what's going on, what her situation really is. She at least has contact with a friendly voice, feels that she's not alone.
Another example of a very personal story that was part of a much larger jigsaw - and another showing the value and comfort of a mobile phone in these disastrous situations - that still raises the hair on the back of my neck whenever I listen to it was during the Black Saturday bushfires in Victoria. It was a real time audio of one person trapped right in the middle of it, facing a terrifying death.
Rhiannon, only twenty years old, called radio station 3AW as the fires raced towards the house where she and a group had taken shelter.
Happy news, but then...
The day in this region started off on a happy note, with the simultaneous arrival in Sydney Harbour of the luxury ocean liners
Queen Mary 2 and the Queen Elizabeth.
It must have been some sight and I'd have liked to have seen it - too early for me to be there though, not being a morning person.
Queen Mary 2 and the Queen Elizabeth.
It must have been some sight and I'd have liked to have seen it - too early for me to be there though, not being a morning person.
Photo: AP Sydney Morning Herald
The harbour was full of leisure boats to welcome the liners and the foreshores were full of people wanting to see and welcome the two monster ships.
A typical happy and pleasant morning in Sydney.
But then later in the morning we started getting news of a big earthquake in New Zealand, which hit Christchurch city centre at lunchtime. The worst possible time, the city centre full of workers, shoppers and sightseers.
It's still chaotic and news is being updated, and getting worse, by the minute. There are many dead, sixty-five so far confirmed, and inevitably there will be more casualties found as rescue teams search the rubble. Numerous people are reported trapped.
Photo: ninemsn.com.au
Buildings have collapsed, especially the historic old ones. The beautiful Christchurch Cathedral has been badly damaged, the spire has crashed into the street and there's rubble all around the building.
Two crowded buses have been crushed by falling buildings as have cars with people in them.
Photo: Getty Images ninemsn.com.au
The city doesn't have enough ambulances to cope and residents from the outer suburbs are driving into the centre to help rescue people and take them to triage centres in their private vehicles.
An eyewitness on radio as I'm typing is talking about being able to smell smoke from fires and having seen broken water mains flooding roads. He says the roads are corrugated and overall infrastructure damage is huge.
Saturday, February 19, 2011
Going, going...
I said on a blog somewhere that the Bahrain demonstrators were demanding change in government, they were not against the monarchy. (I think it must have been in a comment I left on another blog).
I also said in yesterday's post, about the violence against the protestors: ...in practical terms it's simply counter productive. The more you brutalise people the more they will rebel against you. By doing it you create more pressure for change. It's a mistake all authoritan regimes make and they never learn from past examples....Even (the promised enquiry) may not be enough to stem the predictable reaction by the people to the violence.
It certainly did produce the predictable reaction. More demonstrations, increased fury at the authorities and an expansion of the demands to include calls for the king to go.
Once again a government has made a disastrous decision. And it continues because there was more shooting on demonstrators by the army on Friday. Fifty injured, seven critically, according to reports.
It's an upward spiral, there's inevitably going to be much more violence and stronger demands in reaction to it.
"Our demands were peaceful and simple at first. We wanted the prime minister to step down,' Mohamed Ali, a 40-year-old civil servant, said as he choked back tears. "Now the demands are harsher and have reached the pinnacle of the pyramid. We want the whole government to fall."
In the short term a government may be able to control its people with raw power, but that isn't sustainable.
There's only one way this is going to end and that's with change. Only the government can control whether that change happens peacefully by negotiation or violently.
It will happen, one way or another. It's gone too far for it not to.
The quote is from here.
I also said in yesterday's post, about the violence against the protestors: ...in practical terms it's simply counter productive. The more you brutalise people the more they will rebel against you. By doing it you create more pressure for change. It's a mistake all authoritan regimes make and they never learn from past examples....Even (the promised enquiry) may not be enough to stem the predictable reaction by the people to the violence.
It certainly did produce the predictable reaction. More demonstrations, increased fury at the authorities and an expansion of the demands to include calls for the king to go.
Once again a government has made a disastrous decision. And it continues because there was more shooting on demonstrators by the army on Friday. Fifty injured, seven critically, according to reports.
It's an upward spiral, there's inevitably going to be much more violence and stronger demands in reaction to it.
"Our demands were peaceful and simple at first. We wanted the prime minister to step down,' Mohamed Ali, a 40-year-old civil servant, said as he choked back tears. "Now the demands are harsher and have reached the pinnacle of the pyramid. We want the whole government to fall."
In the short term a government may be able to control its people with raw power, but that isn't sustainable.
There's only one way this is going to end and that's with change. Only the government can control whether that change happens peacefully by negotiation or violently.
It will happen, one way or another. It's gone too far for it not to.
The quote is from here.
Friday, February 18, 2011
Bahrain a domino?
While the scaremongers have in the past often warned of the domino theory it hasn't actually happened. But it does look as though it's happening this time.
And where it's happening has taken world leaders by surprise. Especially in the west, where successive governments have propped up, financially and otherwise, the regimes which have now gone or are under threat.
First we had Tunisia, then Egypt and there's increasing unrest in Jordan, Algeria, Morocco, Iran, Yemen, Bahrain...
In the west they're usually lumped together and believed to be the same. But while they have in common the fact that they don't have democratic political systems, they're actually quite different from each other. Absolute monarchies, life presidents, secular, Islamic republic...
They also have very different economies, very different wealth, very different societies.
Currently they do have in common the fact that large numbers of the people want change. And they want change because they want a better deal, a better life.
In the poorer countries the unrest is mostly about standards of living and jobs. In the wealthier such as Bahrain it's mostly about politics. Much as in Northern Ireland it's politics dominated by religion - Catholics vs Protestants, Shia vs Sunni. Although interestingly there are reports of Sunnis joining the Shias in the demonstrations demanding changes.
I'm hearing a lot of surprise that modern westernised Bahrain, with at least half the population being expatriate, is included in the current wave of unrest. But in fact there's long been unrest there, it's been a fact of life for many years.
I remember on my second visit back in the late seventies seeing huge piles of sandals and flip-flops in the streets. In answer to my question I was told that there had been large demonstrations the night before and the demonstrators can run faster from the security forces if they kick off their sandals. From the amount of footwear I could see it must have been a good-size demo.
Coming back to my hotel after dinner I saw Public Defence units on most street corners and intersections and plenty of street patrol vehicles.
But while protests in Bahrain are far from a new phenomenon they do seem to have intensified since the success of unrest elsewhere in the region. In that sense I guess they are part of the domino theory.
The response of the authorities has intensified too with, sadly, people being killed. Reports are saying seven so far, including tragically a two year old girl. Well over two hundred are said to be injured.
Apart from any moral rejection of that, in practical terms it's simply counter productive. The more you brutalise people the more they will rebel against you. By doing it you create more pressure for change. It's a mistake all authoritan regimes make and they never learn from past examples.
Protestors say that riot police stormed their encampment while they were sleeping, firing tear gas and birdshot and beating them with clubs.
The government has said there will be an investigation into the deaths. I'm sure I'm not the only person sceptical about how effective and transparent the investigation will be.
Nothing short of bringing to justice those responsible on the ground and those who gave the order will suffice.
Even that may not be enough to stem the predictable reaction by the people to the violence.
And where it's happening has taken world leaders by surprise. Especially in the west, where successive governments have propped up, financially and otherwise, the regimes which have now gone or are under threat.
First we had Tunisia, then Egypt and there's increasing unrest in Jordan, Algeria, Morocco, Iran, Yemen, Bahrain...
In the west they're usually lumped together and believed to be the same. But while they have in common the fact that they don't have democratic political systems, they're actually quite different from each other. Absolute monarchies, life presidents, secular, Islamic republic...
They also have very different economies, very different wealth, very different societies.
Currently they do have in common the fact that large numbers of the people want change. And they want change because they want a better deal, a better life.
In the poorer countries the unrest is mostly about standards of living and jobs. In the wealthier such as Bahrain it's mostly about politics. Much as in Northern Ireland it's politics dominated by religion - Catholics vs Protestants, Shia vs Sunni. Although interestingly there are reports of Sunnis joining the Shias in the demonstrations demanding changes.
I'm hearing a lot of surprise that modern westernised Bahrain, with at least half the population being expatriate, is included in the current wave of unrest. But in fact there's long been unrest there, it's been a fact of life for many years.
I remember on my second visit back in the late seventies seeing huge piles of sandals and flip-flops in the streets. In answer to my question I was told that there had been large demonstrations the night before and the demonstrators can run faster from the security forces if they kick off their sandals. From the amount of footwear I could see it must have been a good-size demo.
Coming back to my hotel after dinner I saw Public Defence units on most street corners and intersections and plenty of street patrol vehicles.
But while protests in Bahrain are far from a new phenomenon they do seem to have intensified since the success of unrest elsewhere in the region. In that sense I guess they are part of the domino theory.
The response of the authorities has intensified too with, sadly, people being killed. Reports are saying seven so far, including tragically a two year old girl. Well over two hundred are said to be injured.
Apart from any moral rejection of that, in practical terms it's simply counter productive. The more you brutalise people the more they will rebel against you. By doing it you create more pressure for change. It's a mistake all authoritan regimes make and they never learn from past examples.
Protestors say that riot police stormed their encampment while they were sleeping, firing tear gas and birdshot and beating them with clubs.
The government has said there will be an investigation into the deaths. I'm sure I'm not the only person sceptical about how effective and transparent the investigation will be.
Nothing short of bringing to justice those responsible on the ground and those who gave the order will suffice.
Even that may not be enough to stem the predictable reaction by the people to the violence.
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